No, Excess Deaths in 2017 Were Not Worse than 2020.
A press release from the University of Pennsylvania demands your attention: “In the U.S., COVID-19 wasn’t sole cause of excess deaths in 2020.”
The first sentence reads, “By the year 2017, the United States was already suffering more excess deaths and more life years lost each year than those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.”
Immediately, you think, “what does this mean? Are we overestimating COVID-19 deaths?”
Spoiler alert: the press release does not accurately translate what the researchers found. This is dangerous and irresponsible, and it comes directly from the lead author’s university press office. This is not a case of a reporter misinterpreting results or aiming for click-bait.
Let’s discuss what the term “excess deaths” means, what the research results actually tell us, where the press release went wrong, and why we should care.
What Are Excess Deaths? How Do We Calculate Them?
You have probably heard the term “excess deaths” in the last year. Calculating excess deaths can give us a quick shortcut to a rough estimate of how many people have died due to a major event such as an environmental disaster (e.g., Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico) or a pandemic (e.g., COVID-19).
